Ni ikihe gihugu gikomeye mu bya gisirikare muri EAC? Dore uko ibihugu 8 birutanwa
Mu mwaka wa 1998, Afurika y’Uburasirazuba yabaye isibaniro ry’intambara ikomeye yiswe Intambara ya Kabiri ya Congo, bamwe bayita “intambara y’Isi Nyafurika.” Uyu munsi, mu gihe umwuka mubi ukomeje kugaragara muri aka karere, benshi bibaza igihugu cyaba gikomeye kurusha ibindi mu gihe haba habayeho kurasana.
Hashingiwe ku mibare n’ibipimo bitandukanye, iyi nkuru iragaragaza uko ibihugu umunani bigize Umuryango wa Afurika y’Uburasirazuba (EAC) birutanwa mu mbaraga za gisirikare, isobanura n’ibigenderwaho mu kubipima.
Umuryango wa Afurika y’Uburasirazuba ugizwe n’ibihugu 8 ari byo Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (DRC), Somalia, Sudani y’Epfo, u Burundi n’u Rwanda.
Ibi bihugu bifite ubuso bungana na kilometerokare miliyoni 5,400, butuwe n’abarenga miliyoni 331 mu 2023. Ni ubuso bunini buruta ubw’ibihugu 27 by’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi byiyongereyeho Afurika y’Epfo.
Iyo EAC iba igihugu kimwe, iba iri mu bihugu 10 binini ku Isi, ibintu bituma amakimbirane ayivutsemo ashobora kugira ingaruka ku rwego mpuzamahanga. Nubwo uyu muryango washyiriweho korohereza ubucuruzi no gukemura ibibazo bya politiki, hari impungenge ko ibihugu biwugize bimwe bikomeje kwikanga bagenzi babyo.
Uru rutonde turutangirira ku mwanya wa 6, ibihugu bibiri ari byo u Burundi n’u Rwanda bikaza gusuzumwa ukwabyo.
Somalia ni cyo gihugu giherutse kwinjira muri EAC mu 2024. Nubwo gifite amateka maremare y’intambara n’imidugararo, cyane cyane iterwa n’umutwe wa Al-Shabaab, ingabo zacyo zakomeje kwihagararaho zanga gutsindwa burundu. Somalia ifite abasirikare ibihumbi 15 n’imodoka za gisirikare 628, bikayishyira ku mwanya wa 122 mu bihugu 145 ku Isi mu mbaraga za gisirikare, ndetse no ku mwanya wa 36 muri Afurika mu bihugu 38 byasuzumwe. Muri Afurika y’Uburasirazuba, iza ku mwanya wa nyuma, cyane ko icungira ku bufasha bw’amahanga mu bya gisirikare.
Uganda ifite igisirikare kizwi nka Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF), kigizwe n’abasirikare ibihumbi 45, kirinda abaturage barenga miliyoni 50. Igisirikare kirwanira ku butaka gifite imodoka z’intambara 3,862 na burende 259, kikaba ku mwanya wa 46 ku Isi mu kugira burende nyinshi. Mu kirere gifite indege 6 z’intambara zizwi nka fighter jets. Ibi byose bituma Uganda iza ku mwanya wa 114 ku Isi mu mbaraga za gisirikare, ndetse no ku mwanya wa 23 muri Afurika.
Sudani y’Epfo ifite amanota ya Power Index angana na 2.4321, ikaza imbere gato ya Uganda ku rwego rw’Isi. Ifite abasirikare ibihumbi 185, kikaba icya 28 ku Isi mu bihugu bifite abasirikare benshi, ndetse kikaza mu bifite abasirikare benshi ugereranyije n’abaturage kuko ituwe na miliyoni 12 gusa. Gifite burende 30, imodoka z’intambara 1,950 n’indege 20 zirimo kajugujugu 15, ariko nta ndege z’intambara gifite.
Nubwo cyavutse mu 2011 kikaba cyugarijwe n’imidugararo, umutungo wa peteroli ugira uruhare mu kucyongerera amanota, aho kiri ku mwanya wa 24 ku Isi mu bifite peteroli nyinshi.
Tanzania ni igihugu cya kabiri kinini muri aka karere, gifite amateka akomeye mu bya gisirikare kuva ku butegetsi bwa Mwalimu Julius Kambarage Nyerere. Ifite abasirikare ibihumbi 27 n’inkeragutabara zirenga ibihumbi 80. Ifite imodoka z’intambara zirenga 1,000 na burende 62. Mu kirere ifite indege 39 zirimo 14 z’intambara na kajugujugu 12, naho mu mazi ifite ubwato 12 burinda inkombe. Ifite amanota ya Power Index 2.0416, ikaza ku mwanya wa 92 ku Isi no ku mwanya wa 15 muri Afurika.
Kenya ni kimwe mu bihugu bifite ubukungu bukomeye muri aka karere, by’umwihariko umurwa mukuru Nairobi ubarizwamo abarenga 4,000 bafite miliyoni z’amadolari. Igisirikare cya Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) kigizwe n’ingabo ziri ku butaka, mu kirere no mu mazi, bose hamwe bakaba abasirikare ibihumbi 50 n’abandi ibihumbi 25 b’inkeragutabara. Gifite imodoka z’intambara zirenga 4,000, burende 188 n’indege 116 zirimo 17 z’intambara.
Muri 2025, Kenya yashoye miliyari 1.3 z’amadolari mu gisirikare. Ibi byose bituma iza ku mwanya wa 83 ku Isi no ku mwanya wa 11 muri Afurika.
Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (DRC) iza ku mwanya wa mbere muri uru rutonde, nubwo mu buryo bugaragarira amaso igaragara nk’ifite intege nke mu mikorere y’ingabo. Iki gihugu cyayogojwe n’intambara mu binyacumi bibiri bishize, ndetse ibintu byarushijeho kudogera mu myaka ya vuba ubwo imitwe yitwaje intwaro irimo M23 yongeye kubura imirwano mu Burasirazuba bwacyo. Ibi byatumye hari ababona iki gihugu nk’ikidashoboye, cyane ko hari n’igihe cyiyambaza ingabo z’amahanga n’abacancuro ngo bagifashe.
Nubwo bimeze bityo, hari ibindi bipimo by’ingenzi bifashishwa mu kubara imbaraga za gisirikare, byifashishwa n’urubuga rwa Global Fire Power, ari na rwo rutanga uru rutonde. Abahanga mu bya gisirikare bo hirya no hino ku Isi bakora uru rutonde bagendera ku bintu bitandukanye birimo ubwoko bw’intwaro igihugu gifite n’ubukana bwazo, ikoranabuhanga cya gisirikare, ingano y’igihugu, umutungo kamere gifite ushobora kugifasha mu bihe by’intambara, umubare w’abasirikare n’imyitozo bafite, umubare w’abaturage n’ibindi byinshi.
Ibi byose bihabwa amanota azwi nka “Power Index”, aho 0 igaragaza igisirikare gikomeye cyane. Igihugu cya mbere ku Isi ni Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ifite amanota 0.0744, naho uko amanota azamuka ni ko igisirikare kigenda kiba intege nke. Icya nyuma ku rutonde ni Bhutan ifite amanota 6.39, mu bihugu 145 byasuzumwe.
Hashingiwe kuri ibi bipimo, DRC ifite ubuso bunini cyane, kikaba ari igihugu cya kabiri kinini muri Afurika ndetse kikaza ku mwanya wa 11 ku Isi mu bunini. Ikindi kintu cy’ingenzi ni umubare munini w’abaturage, kuko igihugu gifite abaturage barenga miliyoni 115. Mu kubara imbaraga za gisirikare, harebwa cyane umubare w’abashobora kujya ku rugamba, aho muri DRC abarenga miliyoni 31 bafite imyaka ibemerera kujya mu gisirikare.
DRC ifite abasirikare ibihumbi 207, barimo ibihumbi 166 bari mu kazi n’inkeragutabara ibihumbi 41. Iyo habarwa abashobora kujya ku rugamba, haziramo n’abaturage basanzwe bashobora kwitabazwa mu gihe cy’intambara.
Iki gihugu gifite umutungo kamere uhambaye cyane ubarirwa muri za tiriyoni z’amadolari, kikaba kiri mu bihugu bikungahaye cyane ku mutungo kamere ku Isi. Ibi nabyo bigira uruhare rukomeye mu kucyongerera amanota mu kubara imbaraga za gisirikare.
Kubera ibi byose, DRC ishyirwa ku mwanya wa 8 muri Afurika mu mbaraga za gisirikare mu bihugu 46 byasuzumwe. Ifite ibikoresho byinshi bya gisirikare, harimo n’indege z’intambara zo mu bwoko bwa Sukhoi, ariko ikibazo gikomeye kiri mu myitozo n’imikoreshereze yabyo, kuko hari intwaro bafite batabasha gukoresha neza, ndetse hari n’igihe indege zitwarwa n’abanyamahanga.
Muri make, nubwo mu mibare DRC iza ku mwanya mwiza cyane, mu bikorwa bigaragara ku rugamba usanga hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati y’ibigaragara mu nyandiko n’ibiboneka mu buzima busanzwe.
Ku rutonde rwa Global Fire Power, u Burundi n’u Rwanda ntibigaragara, ariko si ukuvuga ko bidafite igisirikare.
U Burundi bufite abasirikare ibihumbi 30. Ingengo y’imari ya gisirikare iri hafi miliyoni 100 z’amadolari mu 2022, ikaba yarikubye kabiri ugereranyije na 2021. Bufite ibikoresho byinshi bishaje byaturutse mu Bufaransa, Uburusiya n’ahahoze ari Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyete, ndetse n’ibikoresho bigezweho bike byakoreshwaga n’abandi. Bitewe n’ubukungu n’imyitozo idakomeye cyane, bushyirwa mu myanya ya nyuma hafi ya Somalia na Sudani y’Epfo.
Ku rutonde rwa Global Fire Power, u Rwanda ntirugaragara mu bihugu byasuzumwe, ariko ibi ntibivuze ko rutagira igisirikare gifite ubushobozi. Amakuru atandukanye, cyane cyane aturuka ku CIA World Factbook, agaragaza ko Ingabo z’u Rwanda zizwi nka Rwanda Defence Force ziri mu zifite imyitozo ihamye n’imikorere iteguye neza.
RDF igizwe n’abasirikare bari mu kazi bagera ku bihumbi 33, barimo abagera ku bihumbi 32 barwanira ku butaka n’abagera ku 1,000 barwanira mu kirere. Muri aba basirikare, abagera kuri 6% ni abagore, bikagaragaza uruhare rw’uburinganire mu nzego z’umutekano z’u Rwanda.
Inyandiko zitandukanye zigaragaza ko RDF ikomeje kuvugurura ubushobozi bwayo mu rwego rw’ibikoresho n’imyitozo, mu cyerekezo kizwi nka “military modernization”, kigamije kongera ubushobozi bw’ingabo mu gihe kirekire. Ibi bijyana no kugura no kuvugurura ibikoresho bya gisirikare, ndetse no kongera ubumenyi n’ubushobozi bw’abasirikare.
Ku bijyanye n’ibikoresho, amakuru agaragaza ko u Rwanda rukoresha uruvange rw’ibikoresho bishaje n’ibigezweho, bikomoka mu bihugu bitandukanye birimo Ubushinwa, Ubufaransa, Israel, Uburusiya, Afurika y’Epfo na Turukiya, ndetse n’ibindi bikomoka mu bwoko bw’ahahoze ari Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyete. Ibi bituma RDF igira uburyo butandukanye bwo gukoresha ibikoresho mu rwego rwa gisirikare.
Hari kandi amakuru agaragaza ko u Rwanda rwifashishije uburyo bw’ikoranabuhanga mu kurinda ikirere cyarwo, aho rwigeze gukoresha uburyo bwobgusama bisasu bya rutura (air defense systems) mu karere ka Rubavu na Rusizi, burimo nka Sky Dragon 50, bwakozwe n’Ubushinwa. Ibi byagaragaye mu bihe bitandukanye by’umutekano mucye ku mipaka, aho hagaragajwe ubushobozi bwo gukumira ibitero biva mu kirere.
U Rwanda rufite kandi urwego rushinzwe iby’isanzure n’ikoranabuhanga rishingiye kuri satellite, ruzwi nka Rwanda Space Agency. Nubwo ibikorwa byarwo byibanda ku bukungu, ubushakashatsi n’imibereho myiza, iri koranabuhanga rishobora kugira uruhare mu bijyanye n’umutekano, harimo gukusanya amakuru (intelligence) no gukurikirana ibikorwa bitandukanye.
Ikindi kigaragaza ubunararibonye bwa RDF ni uruhare rwayo mu butumwa bw’amahoro ku rwego mpuzamahanga. Ingabo z’u Rwanda zagiye zoherezwa mu bihugu bitandukanye birimo Repubulika ya Santarafurika, Mozambique mu ntara ya Cabo Delgado, Sudani n’ahandi, aho zigaragaza ubunararibonye mu gucunga umutekano no kurwanya imitwe yitwaje intwaro.
Muri rusange, nubwo u Rwanda rutagaragara ku rutonde rwa Global Fire Power, amakuru atandukanye agaragaza ko rufite igisirikare gifite imyitozo ihamye, ubunararibonye ku rugamba n’uburyo bwo guhuza ikoranabuhanga n’imikorere. Ibi bituma hari abasesenguzi barushyira mu bihugu bifite igisirikare gikomeye mu karere, cyane cyane iyo hifashishijwe ibipimo by’imyitozo n’imikorere.
Gusa nanone, mu kugereranya imbaraga za gisirikare hifashishijwe ibipimo byose birimo ubukungu, ubuso bw’igihugu, umubare w’abaturage n’ubushobozi bwo kugera ku nyanja, u Rwanda rushobora gushyirwa hagati y’ibihugu nka Sudani y’Epfo na Tanzania cyangwa hagati ya Tanzania na Kenya, bitewe n’uburyo ibipimo bitandukanye bipimwa.